HST hastie group limited

ann out, page-14

  1. 285 Posts.
    Unfortunately I hold, but don't understand how posts can forecast sp of 4c or 40c without giving a rational explanation.

    I think the sp will close tomorrow April 12th closer to 70c and then, assuming trading is as positive as the stated outlook, move progressively higher through 2012, based on reasoning as follows:

    If trading is as satisfactory as HST says it is, then, excluding a capital raising and excluding zero divs for 2011, a return to a "normal" div trend would probably have seen 12c pa from 2H 2012 or from 1H 2013, so producing a sp of 1.00 - 1.50 when the first div payment is expected.

    But no div for say 12 months, so discount the sp by say 10%

    and there is a likely dilution of capital by say 30%, so discount sp by 30%

    result April 2011 sp of 60- 80c,
    so mid sp = 70c based on those assumptions.
 
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