copper futures, page-16

  1. 5,949 Posts.
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    Foxy you said and complained about Tony Albanese's comment,

    "-over the next 30 years it is projected that the world will consume as much copper as it has over the last 10,000 years,"
    ==============================
    Hehehe I am not greedy.

    I would be happy enough if it was 100 years rather than 30 years.

    Don't forget all those nutters who want gazillions of new windmills, each with their own small copper filled generator and their own small dedicated transformer, and all those gazillion PV roof top systems with their DC/AC converters and utility scale solar thermal systems with their generators and transformers and all those cute iPhone, iPad, Kindle, theatre surround systems and not forgetting the 600 million poor Chinese and 600 million Indian's who don't even own an iron, water kettle or computer.

    Assuming 10 kg per head of population (see below) the current 13,000,000 p.a will need to grow to 25,000,000 at least. Thats not even counting Middle East countries where the fastest birth rates are. Neither is it allowing for infrastructure build. Japan consumes for cars etc, so will Chinese and Indians, but China and India have a lot of house building to go including all the power grid to go with it, so expect even higher than 25,000,000 tonne p.a, probably closer to 40 million p.a.
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    http://www.basemetals.com/html/cuinfo.htm

    Demand
    Between 1900 and 2000, copper demand grew from 500,000 tonnes to around 13,000,000 tonnes, with growth accelerating since the 1950's. With some many widespread uses it is not surprising copper demand keeps growing and now with China, India and many other developing countries starting to industrialise and urbanise, demand is likely to grow from strength to strength. Per capita demand for copper rises as GDP per capita rises. Japan consumes around 12kg per capita, NorthAmerica consumers around 10kg per capita and Europe around 9kg per capita. The large populations of China, India, Eastern Europe and South America are all consuming less than 2kg per capita - this is a huge indicator of what lies ahead for copper demand.
    ======================

    OK me again...how about this from Mr Wiki..

    "Escondida had total proven and probable reserves of 34.7 million tonnes of copper of which 22.5 million tonnes is estimated to be recoverable. Total resources (including reserves) were 57.6 million tonnes of copper of which 33.0 million tonnes should be recovered."

    WOW! Enough supply from Escondida the worlds BIGGEST copper mine will last long enough to meet three years CURRENT consumption or ONE YEAR of FUTURE consumption. How many more Escondidas are there to last for the next 20?

    Sorry about "Jumping down your throat" as you put it (jumping is in my nature and in my nick to do so), it would be a lot harder if it was a smaller target.
 
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