ahh on the original question. The USD and UST sudden strength would be simply that the S&P outlook change event represents a "risk off" theme in general.
This means the unwinding of risk on positions, i.e. back to cash and lower risk securities. (UST).
i.e. as per quite a lot of ppl's thinking, even if people doubt the USD long term, initially a big mess will result in liquidating of assets, unwinding of leverage.
which is why a lot of ppl expect that if the SHTF POG will first nose dive. (and timing is everything).
a derivatives trader couple probably take a position on the long term POG without a risk position in the short and medium term.
For what it's worth John's tone doesn't worry me, it's good having someone with a bit of know-how to explain things :)
the thing that really gets my goat is when people state some out there position without their underlying logic.
(not applicable to this thread)
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