I think its inevitible that both TPLs will be granted. It serves no purpose to either JPR or the government to turn down the application, and would severely undermine future investment in the region.
The J50 well has been shut-in nearly a year now. The initial excuse for the TPL delay was a change of government/minister. I can accept that. But the delay now is very disappointing.
Most of the requirements are concerning safety and environment, so perhaps their are issues but they will be resolved.
With J52, the wekk has about 100days of further testing before JPR can apply for a TPL. But I imagine the process might be quicker and we have learnt from prior mistakes. But still means minimum 3-4months.
J50 will come out of the blue.
Their is probably some doubt/concern in the market, so getting our first TPL granted will be a boost to confidence which is worth more than the fundamental boost.
But ofcourse fundamentally JPR becomes a producer with real earnings. Even if J50 remains at the last reported 350bopd, it will quickly add up at todays prices.
J50 TPL is worth a few cents easy.
With J50 being shut-in so long, I do wonder what work if any will be required to get it flowing again.
The last reported figures were J50=350bopd(stabilised), J52=750bopd(initial), NWZ2=200bopd(anticipated).
So with minimal additional expenditure, we have a realistic chance of producing 1300bopd. Probabably a bit less because I personally think J52 will drop a bit.
Bring on the TPL!
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