From what I have seen regarding Xstrata's intentions I put it at about a 95% certainty they will want to J/V or T/O NKP. The puzzle for me with this stock is how X are going to play this.
What I can't get my head around is why they would pay $1B or so for a 50% share in the venture when apparently the market would give them the whole lot for $200m at the moment. It is a better option for X to T/O NKP at anything up to about $2B or $3 per share.
My guess is that Genorah aren't particularly interested in a T/O otherwise it probably would have happened already. I imagine there are political reasons; the apparent good will shown towards Genorah by the DMR could be an indication of this. I don't think Genorah is purely in it for the money; I suspect that given some of their political links, they have more idealistic goals related to black economic empowerment.
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