show me the money ! how big is the dividend ?, page-60

Well seeing I started this thread time to respond to a couple of points.

Fluffy said ! "When OZL stated they owned approx. 19% of SFR shares on the 02/07/10, the share price took off, rising from $3.50 to $8.00 in around 3 months"

Well Fluff as you know OZL did an overnight " off-market raid " by stealth on SFR - 1 minute they own none and the next day they own 19.9% ? gotta love those nominee accounts ! LOL

So the market sees OZL taking a position which signals takeover in play ! that generates media interest and as the stock SFR is supported by the broking establishment they gleefully tell their clients to jump on the train.

Buyers out number sellers the price goes up _ hardly rocket science there. Now in CDU,s case the investor has taken a placement not an off market raid.

Placements are normally done at a discount but they actual payed a premium to vwap in this instance. As you rightly state the price is now trading at discount to the placement price ? why is that ?

Well as opposed to OZL and SFR which installed a take over premium - this placement has probably removed the take over premium. Anyone in the stock now will have to wait probably two years ( excluding further discovery success at Wilgar ) to go mining and collect the divs before real value can be established.

Then of course there is the fact that Cudeco is not endeared by the broking fraternity - there is no kudos or $$$$$ in brokers recommending their clients to buy CDU given the fact Mccrae has bagged them and in turn they have largely bagged rocklands.

So thats my answer for part of the reason the stock is now $3.40 - Having said that the Chinese didn't pay $3.80 because they thought it was worth $3.80 - obviously they think they have got a bargain.

Shareholder ! let me apologise for some of the flack you have copped for posting your thoughts here. You have a heart against your name and in my book that puts you in a different category to the usual non holder negative downramp posts we are accustomed to reading on the CDU threads.

Your confusion re the pyrite is understandable for someone with a passing interest. When I did my calcs on $2/$3 divs I used the extra cobalt & acid revenue of $805 per ton only as an offset to the mining costs. ( cream on top if you like )

You are also correct that a 3mt plant as per the EIS will not produce at 4% for 10 years. and in fact the 20 year off take agreement at this stage is largely irrelevant seeing we only have an EIS application for a 10 year mine life.

Revenue will indeed fall away from year 5 to year 10 - but I am expecting that the plant will be upgraded to possibly a 10mt per year plant by year 10 so how long is a piece of string then.

My point was buying now at $3.50 and holding for 2 years to get a $2 to $3 dividend for 4 to 5 years makes CDU a pretty attractive investment in my Book ?

Even Zeds has bought and is going to hold till divs.

Cheers Hoot