daytrades may 5 pre-market, page-23

On the contrary, if you take a look at a longer term chart of the XAO, it becomes apparent that all our market is doing right now is consolidating the GFC recovery to the 50% 'rebound' level.

There are a few posters on here that are good with time analysis and can probably pick the breakthrough date quite well, but for mine, this below chart is a very basic prediction of where I see things headed.

The Aussie market has lagged overseas markets for the past 2 years, and it makes sense that at some stage it will make up for lost ground.

Some are saying that a slow in growth in China will impact on commodity prices. Well the fact remains that they are still growing, whether it be at 5% a year or 10%. Sure, there will be an adjustment in prices of iron etc, but while the demand for these metals remains strong, so will the performance of the resource majors in Australia. And that effect will carry along the market at large, and will keep a positive sentiment in other brands of stocks (eg. small cap explorers).

There are plenty of iron ore companies looking to start producing in the next few years in Australia. But take note that their output is going to range from 2MTpa to 5MTpa, which is quite small in a global sense. Notable exceptions would be Atlas and the majors, but all this talk about how the spot price of iron will crash and will bring the Aussie market to its knees is unwarrented in my opinion.

As long as demand overweighs suppply, then commodity prices should stay strong.

I'm not saying that Cu will stay above $4/lb forever, or that the spot price of iron will keep on rising, but if there was a retreat in commodity prices, it really shouldn't be as dire as some will make it out to be.

Anyways, that chart...