Afternoon fellow ORD�ers, below is my interpretation of this weeks trading, in particular Tuesday through Friday.
Disclaimer; this is my opinion or interpretation of this weeks events and can obviously be viewed differently by others. I therefore encourage you to do your own thorough research.
Monday; announcement by ORD regarding the IPO for SARCO & the Lao Alumina Project with RBC appointed as the Financial Adviser. As is often the case no immediate market reaction was discernable although it must be said this announcement was SIGNIFICANT by any stretch of the imagination.
Tuesday; while giving the appearance of it being just another trading day the gradual increasing value of the SP throughout the day suggested the market had given some consideration to the precise nature of the previous days news.
In fact during the final hour some 331 trades took place with 16M shares being exchanged @ a value of $1.32M. Of more interest was that the SP closed @ 0.094 however during the Match a further 42 trades took place with 3.3M shares being exchanged (**purchased) @ a value of $348K (0.105). This was IMO set the standard for the following mornings trading pattern!
Wednesday; the market opened in a frenzy with the SP climbing to 0.125 rapidly however it didnt remain there long and the SP gradually slid downwards all day from this high before closing @ 0.085 off a low of 0.082!
While this may appear a rather disappointing day given the nature of the news released on the Monday which was also followed up with the IPO presentation on the Tuesday, I believe there was something else at play here.
During the first two hours of trading on Wednesday some 964 trades took place with 61M shares being exchanged (**purchased) @ a value of $6.1M. This two hour period represented 59% of the total shares traded for the entire day!
IMO this rush was carefully engineered late the previous day in order to bring to market higher volumes of shares in order for our BIG FISH to have a greater opportunity to accumulate. Lets not kid ourselves ORD has been tightly held for some time.
So now all of as sudden we have some 64.3M shares purchased by traders/investors (not our BIG FISH) @ an average price of 0.10 & dont forget less than a week earlier ORD was trading @ around half that value - 0.05.
As outlined earlier, from this point the SP gradually declined that was until the final hour where we saw some 354 trades occur with 23.5M (23% of the days total) shares being traded (**accumulated by our BIG FISH) @ an average of 0.09. This represents an average loss of 10% for those who bought in @ 0.10 & sold @ 0.09.
IMO this was traders AND to a lesser extent both inexperienced & disciplined investors (adhering to a trading plan), selling after they bought in during rush hour in the morning (remember the figures for the first two hours of Wednesday). Its also worth remembering that many traders dont like holding a stock overnight particularly one that has already turned around in terms of trend like ORD gave the appearance of doing.
IMO the volumes have now encouraged/enticed many holders to put their shares on the market and as such our BIG FISH has a better and easier chance to accumulate.
Thursday; was a much quieter day although it was important because we saw the SP decline throughout the day after opening @ 0.082 with a high shortly after @ 0.086. The SP eventually closed @ 0.080 near the low of 0.079. IMO the BIG FISH was effectively accumulating ALL DAY at these levels.
Think about the person who for example purchased at 0.12 on Wednesday morning & is still holding but questioning his/her investment, particularly when the SP has now closed @ 0.08. The person is looking @ a loss of 33% in two days! Do you think that given the apparent change in ORD sentiment, if that person is presented with an opportunity to sell at less of a loss, they will take that opportunity you betchya & our BIG FISH knows this.
Friday; an announcement comes out re drilling to commence @ Suplejack in July is no real market kicker IMO and initially this was exactly how this was treated. Whilst it is very positive for ORD in the longer term, in the short term its not really news thats going to necessarily attract traders to ORD.
During the second & third hours of trading however something changed. Some 850 trades took place with 60M shares (67% of the total for the day) being exchanged (**accumulated by our BIG FISH) @ and average of 0.088. IMO this was a significant number of those who had joined the frenzy on Wednesday morning now exiting their positions given the apparent change in ORD sentiment.
IMO our BIG FISH used the Suplejack announcement as the vehicle to accumulate more shares from those too nervous to continue holding AND who could blame them the way the stock had been trading like a yo-yo!
To summarize ORD has issued capital of 470M. The Top Twenty as of 14th Feb (my last updated Top 20) hold approx 120M of these however if we expand this out to the Top50 we are looking at 224M being held! Whilst the shares held by the extra 30 places that make up the Top 50 may not necessarily be as secure as the Top 20 itself I believe they are reasonably secure as they are all at least holdings of 1M or more (in a speculative company).
Therefore if we deduct the 224M from the 470M we're left with 246M. Now going off the figures I've calculated above showing the accumulation of our BIG FISH over the past three days (100-150M) which potentially leaves as few as 100M on market!!!
It's also important to consider that we don't know if our BIG FISH is indeed the same accumulator over recent months? If indeed he/she is then the SP could indeed be headed lower.
It's also worth looking at the closing price each day and how that compared with the VWAP as others have highlighted. The SP was sold down (an engineered finish IMO).
I've also attached a chart showing the inverted hammer that Daning referred to and the OBV (On Balance Volume) which is rising strongly and thus indicating accumulation!!!
I welcome others' views on my thoughts ;)
WC8
VAN Price at posting:
8.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
