games are nearly over...imo, page-191

for anyone who's interested in some more in depth TA (boring), I'll describe the action of the last few days especially that of 04May Wednesday, if not interested it's recommended that you close this post and/or go watch the footy, also sorry about the length :)

first up I'll describe the bar/candles action on that day and then what we should've seen in the background and lastly what we can expect to see in the near future

we describe the bar of Wednesday as a 'potential selling climax', odd name but what it's referring to is the 'herd' selling, it's obviously the complete opposite of the 'potential buyers climax', which happens at the top of the market and you guessed it, the 'herd' are buying (silly)

for it to be valid, the bar/candle should've been a down bar on ultra high volume and if so that must contain buying from the pros especially if it's into new low ground and the next day closes higher

so far so good, cause the day dipped below the lows of the japanese incident of 35.5cents, being the lowest close for about 5months, it was also on ultra high volume and thursday closed higher

there should've been a clear downtrend in place, yes, eventually the ST traders and weak holders will panic and sell regardless of price which offers the pros the stock at a good price

only buying by the pros can stop a down move and the covering of shorts will also add to this huge volume, this has to happen on down bars so as not to move the prices against themselves

the market may need to accumulate further before an upmove can take place. the pros do this by selling small amounts of their holdings to push prices back down, however overall they are buying more than they are selling

remember within this particular day there is obviously demand coming in but there is also potential supply still present, the SP will not rally far until the pros have checked to see if this potential supply has gone and they do this by 'testing' and the nasty 'shakeout'

shakeouts dip down and are usually on a wide spread but close near the highs, if the volume is low, that's basically a brutal 'test' and shows that the supply has gone. if the volume is high you should or would expect 'testing' in the near future

and a 'test' should be a narrow, maybe a bit more spread sometimes, closing in the mid or high on low volume. when this happens it's really a sign that there are no more weak holders around, if there was the volume would obviously be higher

now what we don't want to appear are days on high+ volume upbars/days that close off the highs with the next bar down, also don't want upthrusts or no demand action, just nice steady as it goes volume (not low) on a nice spread (not narrow) closing highish

on the very next day Thursday, we had an Ultra high volume upbar, with the next bar down, but it was on lowering volume and closed highish, sort of acting as a 'test' to the potential supply within the previous day

I'd expect or like for the SP to move sideways for a couple of days, just to move away from this big volume in time, which will possibly allow us to spot even more 'testing', and if so, we would like to see them on even less volume, which will give the pros a clear signal that supply has gone and it's time for them to start drip feeding the prices higher. the end

2day charts, with one zoomed in close