bg: slow to shore up reserves, page-7

I think the state of gas reserves is best described as "adequate." Certainly not spectacular. The impression I'm getting from BG, STO and ORG is that the Fairviews and Berwyndales have all been found and they're all trying to eke out Reserves from the mediocre ground that's left. Fraccing and laterals are going to be a big part of the remaining Reserves.

Yet after the initial wave of consolidation that set the sector alight, we've seen everything stagnate, despite there still being some prime takeover targets like ESG.

I can only assume this was because the 'informed opinion' believed that not all four major projects could go ahead and consolidation was inevitable. But as time goes on, it's start to look like all four ARE going ahead independently, or at least three of them are.

I wonder if this might trigger a second wave of consolidation in which the few remaining independents of decent quality (and they're already looking extremely thin on the ground) get snapped up.

I can only really think of two tier-one takeover targets - ESG and BOW. I can't work out why Santos in particular isn't buying out BOW. Less than half the market cap of ESG and in a prime location in the Bowen Basin, and with Surat assets as well that Santos lacks. 2P looking sparse at the moment but proven commercial flows will convert a lot of their 3P to 2P.

MEL are probably a tier 1.5. Blue and COI, well... I'm extremely wary of any company whose main assets lie in the Galilee.

So ESG and BOW are really the last ones standing.