luckymjohnson wins the prize - reading through the thread I was wondering when someone was going to pick up on this -very lazy commentary by SDL in an otherwise positive announcement.
For the record SDL has 81% of Mbarga and 76.5% of Nabeba after Govt's are allocated their interests.
The SDL SP WILL rise when SDL sell 20,30,40% or whatever of the projects because of certainty - all brokers analysis over the past year has already factored this sale (at a price less than NPV) into their valuations - Southern Cross and Bell Potter examples.
The sharemarket currently values 10% of the undeveloped/ unfinanced project at $125 million (via SDL SP) against various NPV calcs of $225 - $400m+++ depending on IO price at an operating mine level.
Conceptually a sale of 40% of the project for $500m will leave SDL with 40% of the project funded with $3.5b debt. At IO price $60sh tonne - the EBITDA will be circa $1.3b ($100t = $2.6b) - ignoring additional production rates.
Only then can a NPV valuation (net of debt)be utilised with some certainty in valuing the SDL SP - from above $900m (4x225m)to $1,600m or $0.32 to $0.57 per share. BP & SC had valuations $0.72 to $0.77 with Capex $800m lower so I must be pretty close to the mark with these numbers.
In hindsight I think that is what the market has been telling us the past 6 months?????????? - it just got ahead of itself.
Seems like a buy to me but I will be selling quite a bit lower than the $1. I still think the Chinese will try and buy us out around mid $0.40s.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- SDL
- article in bloomberg
article in bloomberg, page-28
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 50 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add SDL (ASX) to my watchlist
Currently unlisted public company.
The Watchlist
ACW
ACTINOGEN MEDICAL LIMITED
Steven Gourlay, Managing Director and CEO
Steven Gourlay
Managing Director and CEO
SPONSORED BY The Market Online