Figures used by NDO in their AUD$2.22/sh valuation.
Mean OIIP (P50): 1,000mmbbls RF: 40% (carbonates tend to higher RF than clastics) WI: 35% (estimated prior to Shell farmin) NPV/bbl: US$15 (WTI $70/bbl mid May 2010) Shares outstanding: 1,052M XR: USD/AUD = 90c
Things that have changed since then... WI: 33% NPV/bbl: ?? (WTI $98/bbl mid May 2011) Shares outstanding: 1,374M XR: USD/AUD = 106c
METHOD: P50 X RF X WI X NPV / Shares O/S = USD$/sh
Same methodology used by p1K, but NDO did not allow a 1.2 derisking factor.
You can see that p1K's P50 estimate is quite conservative at only 50% of the NDO Mean estimated OIIP (independently assessed), and 50% RF may be achievable, but will take a long time to get that last 10 to 15% out.
NDO Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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