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g'day pinto.

agree on your default views & FML being a LT?er. not a big deal, UNLESS it becomes the straw that breaks the camel?s back & brings the whole house down. As I?ve posted for a while I?m mega bearish & have been defensive for some time; missing this current cyclical bull run. But that?s fine (FOR ME!), in my comfortable retired state. I?m happy to sit on 90% cash for as long as it takes, as I NEVER want to have to go back to full time paid work again.
So you need to be careful when reading my thoughts; yes I?m 40% (of total shares held), in FML, but that translates to just 4% of my total portfolio. So if FML does fall over in a global tank, I will take a hit, but not fatal.

My investing decisions these days are driven by this: If this one fails, will it change the brand (read cost) of the wine I drink? If it will, I don?t invest.


Although on default?s, Greece isn?t the issue (you?re right, they default all the time, as do other countries); problem is SPAIN & to a lesser degree Italy (who have long been a financial basket case). BUT we have basically all of Europe, other than the gorilla, Germany (& to a lesser extent France), in severe financial stress. One or two smaller countries (Greece, Iceland, Ireland etc) aren?t an issue, but make that all of Europe, except Germany & France & you have the makings of that trigger that might just start the snowball to Armageddon rolling. Again, I HOPE not.

I?m hoping for the best, but have prepared for the worst.

I don?t believe FML would fail in a global tank; yes, it would get smashed with everything else, then, as you say, the sun comes up & people see the POG & FML churning out 100,000+ oz & all is well.
The natural assumption is that in a global melt down, gold will soar & FML with it. I favour that view, BUT, we just don?t know, as we don?t know exactly what will bring the world tumbling down. I thought hybrids were a safer investment before GFC. That incorrect decision cost me plenty. TD?s only for me now, but 6+% ok.

Question for most of this board (those not retired with enough in the bank), is what do you do? I thought we would have seen the crash by now; but the huge stimulus/bail out packages in USA/Europe/Japan etc, keep ?kicking the can down the road? & looks like we might see QE 3, then 4, 5, 6 I suspect! So the crash may be further kicked down the road, 6, 12 months, maybe much longer. Only thing I?m convinced of, is that WE WILL CRASH. What I (or anyone else on the planet), don?t know is WHEN.
The only hope is we have a smaller crash than I fear; up to/around 40-50%. Bad, yes; but survivable ? particularly for profitable gold producers like FML. BUT, if we have the Armageddon scenario play out, we?re all stuffed. So I honestly HOPE we somehow muddle through & have nothing worse than a 40/50% crash.

Unfortunately, many have no choice & have to stay in the market, accumulating more to get to that happy retired in comfort state. If you're young (say under 40), you have TIME to blow it & start over. I'm comfortablr for my 30yo son (& daughter) to have less cash atm. If they get smashed, I know they will see at least 2 more major mega secular bull markets before they retire. If you're older, near/at retirement, I'd be thinking of being quite defensive.


I?m helping a few with their retirement & they are at varying cash %?s (30-100%). It all depends on your sleep easy level of comfort/risk.
So good luck to us all.

Cheers,
Ned.

PS
It won?t be DOM; over rated & over priced. Bollinger RD is my preference. Although the Krug grande cuvee ain't bad.
The best of the currently available vintages is Pol Roger ?99; $96 at Dans atm. Had one for son?s 30th the other night. Outstanding. Non vintage French is not worth it even under $50. Aussie much better in that lower price range.