I have no idea how the world will avoid a great depression.
Firstly 58% of US GDP is debt and the EU has 80% of its GDP as debt.
There is no doubt in my mind that the EU will be in a recession soon. This could reduce their GDP by half.
The EU revenue is only 44% of GDP and expenditure is 50% of GDP, they already have a short fall of 6% or
900 billion euro a year on top of $12 trillion euro debt.
Another problem, 70% of the EU GDP is services. Usually services are the first jobs go in a recession. This will slice EU revenue and GDP. If 25% of service jobs go, that would cut EU GDP by 2.5 trillion euro. That would raise debt to 105% of GDP. I dont think my figures are too extreme because the service sector looks very top heavy.
Each major country of the world has debt of 80%. The only country that doesnt is the US which has 58% GDP but they are not in any position to bail anyone out.
If the EU goes into recession and it probably will, debt will double as a percentage of GDP. All major EU countries will have between 160% and 250% debt as a percentage of GDP.
Japan.....225
Greece....145
Itally....119
Singapore.102
Belgium....96
Ireland....96
Portugal...93
Germany....83
France.....81
UK........ 76
US........ 58
I would love to hear other opinions about this.
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