very quiet, page-2

Think nothing will happen with BCD until their next production results and cash flow figures/profit. Good news was last quarter their cash costs per once were significantly down, production was also low but still managed a cash positive quarter JUST.

If cash costs can remain stable (which they said they can achieve), production can jump even slighly higher (which they said they are working on) and given the fact gold is now around $1430 AUD an ounce (as opposed to BCD average of around $1380 AUD last quarter) then the April to June 2011 quarter could well be the turning point for this stock.

Yes - we have heard it all before! However, this time is a different management which last quarter proved they can turn things around i.e. cash costs per ounce drastically reduced in just over 6 months with the new team.

Small gold companies of the size of BCD are conservatively valued at 10PE. BCD can achieve a $2million annual profit if gold in AUD remains at $1430 an ounce = $45 additional profit per ounce based on last months average price

Lets do the math;

11,000 ounces produced x $45 = $495,000 profit x 4 quarters = around $2million. At a PE of 10 times BCD would be valed at $20m which is twice its current value OR about 2 cents a share.

This doesn't take into account an increased production. However a 1000 an ounce production would lift profit annually by another $760,000 as follows;

1000 x (Sale cost $1430 AUD - Production Cost $1240) = $190 x 1000 = $190,000 x 4 quaters = $760,000 adding another 7.5 million dollar value to the company on valuation PE of 10x Or another .7 cents per share.

So in summary;

1. Assuming current production of 11,000 onces per quarter an gold stays at an average price of $1430 BCD = 2 Cents per share

2. Assuming increased production to 12,000 onces per quarter an gold stays at an average price $1430 BCD = 2.7 cents a share

So if you buy at todays price of 1.1 cents;

81% return if goes to 2 cents
145% return if goes to 2.7 cents

Provided the above assumptions and everything else remain relatively stable including cash costs per ounce.