basketprice 1000us$, new qoutes, production, page-23

I must admit im also enjoying the banter/debate between Ara and Omg..like a ping pong game..which leads me to make some comments on China becoming a net Importer by 2014.
Q1.Who will be supplying China?
Wont be LYC, fuzzy figures released so far indicate some 70% of Phase 2 sold out already.
NC has clearly stated LYC,s priority is Japan,Europe,US.
Certainly wont be MCP..US/Japan.
That leaves ALK,ARU neither of which are arranging contracts with China.
This is if MCP/ALK/ARU actually get going by 2014,and if they do they can only produce about a 1000 T a month at best..so a long road there just to fill existing contracts outside china.

AVL,REE,G W,etc are still at shovel stage,and cant see them looking straight at china as a prime client.


Brazil...Vale..yes in 10 yrs time,or any other mine China gets hold off.

The Chinese Gov. is already in the drivers seat..re Revenue..with the average Tariff per element around the 25% mark,then add the Licenses,then Company tax,etc so for them the higher the Basket price the better their 25% earns.

STOCKPILING.
This everyone will notice never comes into any Global demand figures.
Prior to the Trawler incident between China and Japan..Japan and the US DOD were stockpiling..except thats now running out rapidly.
Those companies lucky enough to have current contracts will be Stockpiling as much as they can get hold off,(once bitten,)which also has the effect of Competitor Advantage,over new companies scrounging to get the left overs,if there is any.

I think we often fall into the trap of comparing REE,s with single commodities like Iron ore,oil, copper etc where ships are loaded to the hilt.
Ree,s can probably fit into one of the ships Cabins.hardly flood the markets.

We can safely guess China will run 2 sets of books/prices..internally its about the Global manufacturing dominence they are after.(cheaper)thats obvious with their current stockpiling by reducing the export quotas.
Internationally its to their advantage to slug the world with the highest prices possible.
Still cant figure out though who will supply China.