new bee partner, page-21

Vegemight, I'm not saying there's no chance of meeting plan. Just saying that if your going to buy as a deep fundamental investor, in my view, it takes a lot of risk out if you only pay for assets that are already there. Then you really know what you've got and can have conviction. Otherwise your rely too much on management promises. I think you can find things with downside capped by cash flows but plenty of upside. Then its probably a good strategy to buy and refuse to be shaken out.

In terms of whether CCC can achieve their goals, I'm not even sure what they are any more. They give no up to date guidance. And in terms of confidence in my analysis. Well, its all a bit futile. They give few numbers and then they change. The timing changed, the margins for Ferriera and Vlak changed, the facilities available changed, the FOB costs changed even the resources changed along the way. I think any real analysis will only be possible when the full year accounts come out.

I would argue that CCC has already gone a bit wrong for the bulls. Coal prices have gone up 50pc (as many them predicted to their credit) but the stocks gone nowhere. The main reasons being, in my view, that Vlak and Ferrira were both big disappointments, the costs of financing, including all the consultancy fees were much higher than anyone expected and the development projects have been delayed a little.