australia's next csl?, page-24

ok, at the risk of being annoying with all these posts, i have reworked the numbers.

People with diabetes
- US: 26m
- EU: 55m
- RoW: 204m

People with venous ulcers:
- 1% of population

Market Size

- US chronic diabetic ulcer market size: 1b
- EU chronic diabetic ulcer market size: 1.7b
- Rest of World chronic ulcer market size: 2b
- US chronic venous ulcer market size: 2.6b
- EU chronic venous ulcer market size: 1.2b
- Rest of World chronic ulcer market size: 5.7b
- Total market size: 14b

Revenues to TIS:

- US diabetic ulcer: 16.5m
- EU diabetic ulcer: 10.4m
- RoW diabetic ulcer: 20.4m
- US venous ulcer: 12.4m
- EU venous ulcer: 25.5m
- RoW venous ulcer: 57m
- Total revenue: 143m

From here you can work out your own share price using PE, DCF or whatever.

Calculation Inputs:

1. Diabetic Ulcer calculations: an estimate of the number of people with chronic diabetic ulcers (based on 10% of people with diabetes having ulcers and of those 50% having chronic ulcers) and revenues to TIS based on 10% market share and 10% royalties

2. Venous ulcer calculations: an estimate of the number of people with chronic venous ulcers (based on 1% of population having ulcers and 50% of those having chronic ulcers) and revenues to TIS based on 10% market share and 10% royalties

3. Price: I assumed USD800 per treatment for the US, USD600 for EU and 200 for RoW.


Further comments:

1. Where these calculations are questionable:
- price charged for VitroGro
- estimates of venous ulcers
- TIS royalties
- TIS getting 10% of the chronic ulcer market

2. From what i have read about the history of products like Dermagraft, the partner is very important. Dermagraft went nowhere under S&N. Last year under new management it had 150m in sales (almost a 805 increase yoy). I for one an happy that management are fighting for the best deal and hopefully being picky about who they do the deal with.

3. I cant get to 6 dollars EPS but still, pretty good.

4. I am happy to share my calculation spreadsheet. If anyone knows how to post a spreadsheet here or wants to do it for me, post your email address, ill send it to you and you can post it back here for others.

5. Again, i don't expect these calculations to ever be proven correct. I do these simply to create a rough idea of what the value might be at some stage in the future if a list of things go our way.

6. Don't invest based on what i have provided here. But by all means pick it apart and tell me what i am wrong.