why isn't ozl going with the flow , page-12

Hi Mx

Will give my opinion for what it's worth.

The overriding issue for OZL is the general market sentiment and potential for a market downturn should China bubble deflate, Europe sovereign debt issue materialise and general malaise in the US economy.

If we look at OZL specifically, some would have issues at the moment with OZL being a one trick pony, although a pretty good trick at that ie PH

I have a personal belief that Management have fumbled the ball a bit lately and have overdone the share consolidation which has had a psychological affect on investors because the SP is perceived to be too high. We will have to wait awhile for this perception to get back to an adjusted reality and it presents a great buying opportunity at the moment. Don't forget the consolidation has potentially reduced the liquidity in the SP with a result rises and falls could be more lumpy.

I still think the capital return, whilst personally welcome, may be a strategic mistake, particularly with the uncertainty in the market at the moment. It reduced one of the perceived great strengths of OZL in that its cash reserves would allow it to ride out and potentially prosper with acquisitions in any market pull back.

The timing is unfortunate given the market uncertainty and I hope it does not come back to haunt us like the share dividend immediately prior to the GFC did.

I think management did get it right with the share buyback (has it started yet) and Big C.

At the moment I would still rate OZL a good buy but for the long term as I don't see any short term (< 6 months) big gains. A surprise announcement would of course change all that, and when franked dividends get paid the SP will rise.

My thoughts only

Regards