First, a few observations:
1) I think BTA is by rights worth somewhere north of $3 a share. I see most of the value as being in LANI
2) I think that the near-term news around increasing Tamiflu resistance is very promising for BTA, and just might lead to a massive landscape shift in the next 6 - 12 months.
So why didn't I buy BTA today, and why don't I hold any of the stock at present?
In essence, it comes down to just ONE issue:
I am confused by what Piper Jaffray are up to, and think there is a real risk that my exposure to the asset that I really like - LANI - will be diluted by the company doing a deal in the USA just for the sake of "bulking up". I have had one conversation with management about why institutions don't like them / what their plans are etc. and received a message back that sounded something like "it's not our fault that there's no institutional interest in our stock. Instos only like companies that are worth $500 million +". . . .before some messaging around the fact that they were looking at all options for bulking up & raising additional capital to get the development pipeline further into the clinic.
Now - this really scares me. I would much prefer to hear the board make a very clear statement that they are not going to dilute shareholder exposure to LANI at any sort of discount to fair value.
If the company made the statement that I am looking for, I would be buying at current prices with my ears pinned back. I am happy to wait six years if that's what it takes for the market to wake up.
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