pauleys - tell 'em they're dreamin - wednesday, page-67

XJO (ASX200) +0.6%
XTL (Twenty Leaders) +0.5%
XFL (Fifty Leaders) +0.5%
XFJ (Financials) +0.3%
XMJ (Materials) +1.1%
Energy +0.6%
XSO (Small Ordinaries) +0.9%

A moderate day with strength in the Materials and the Small Ordinaries.

The market finished below the 13-Day Moving Average after opening strongly. It also remains below the first line of major resistance.

The Small Ordinaries today out-performed the market.

Volume was elevated today and, once again, declining/Volume outpaced advancing volume. The AdvVol/DeclVol ratio came in at 0.77. That's not encouraging. That indicates heavy selling today even though the Index finished well on the positive side of the ledger.

The long-term Pitchfork continues to contain this retracement. Until the Index can break above that upper tine, any bullish views remain on hold.

INDICATORS:

RSI.9: 44.7. Below its mid-line. It needs to get back above its mid-line.
MACD Histogram marginally above Zero.
MACD below the Zero line. Negative.
CCI.14: -54. Rising above -100. Positive.
Stochastic: 17.4. Above its signal line and but still below the oversold level of 20.

The market sold off today after a steep rise, but still remains well on the positive side of the ledger.

Every small rally so far in this decline has ended with a wide range bar which closed near the high of the day. Today was different. It represents serious doubt in the minds of traders that this rally has legs. That may be a positive. But, for now, we're still enthralled by overseas developments. Greece and the Fed meeting in America seemed to be dominating sentiment.

As I said yesterday, I think we can look to the American market in the next few days for guidance as to how we might progress. That's not what I always think. But this time I think it might be apt.

I really don't know about today. And have no idea about tomorrow - but I'm leaning to a bearish day tomorrow.

If we can crack above that overhead resistance and the oblique resistance of the Pitchfork, I think we're away at the races. If that happens, we'll also see the indicators take on a positive bent.

Good luck

Redb