That is almost impossible to predict. In my opinion, there would be series of cascading events that will need to be predicted from a macro-economic level (that will affect in the interest in this project) through, the joint venture partnership and the government (2 govt in Africa) that sundance has to deal with.
Scenario 1: Second economic crisis with China economy slowing down. This could see SDL drop down to around 20s level as most people would be risk adverse and will probably reinvest in a blue-chip positive cash flow company.
Scenario 2: No economic crisis and China continues to grow healthy. We can see the investment sentiment turning positive and possibly going for a run towards 60 cents again.
Did you see the interview with Ben Bernanke last night ? He said "He does not know why but he believes US economy will grow (albeit slowly)." If even a harvard graduate does not know the exact future of the US economy how about us mere mortals.
The stock market is ruthless and can take all of your capital to the drain if you are not aware and objective of the potential risk but if you invest right, it will be better than throwing money on our lotto.
Did you hear about Davis Investment. He lost AIG shares from $1.6 billion to $41 million dollars. So guys be careful, i want you guys to win and not to get hurt because our greatest enemy when we have money is greed!
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alDAY8mkPeGs
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