Great post. I agree with almost everything you said.
But scenario 1 and 2 would have less of a shareprice differential because if we assume that full production equates to a market cap of $25mil,then scenario 1 should have a higher market cap to include cash on hand. Because the fundamentals/IP would as you say be the same whether they announce full production/distribution a day before or a day after options expire.
Also we need cash regardless, so under scenario 2 we would probably do a placement at 15% discount. How much we choose to raise is anyones guess. So we wont know how many shares on issue.
The market just wants to know our marketing plan. When, how much, etc.
We couldnt very well raise money this week, whilst PNOO are technically still alive. Imagine the outcry?
Once they are formally dead, the company will crunch the numbers, determine if we should do a big or small campaign. Then they will announce a rights issue for the amount required, it will include a prospectus and it will outline the plan.
The cr itself would be a negative, but if its more than 15% it will require a prospectus. The detail required would be exactly what we holders are after and the market will respond IMO.
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