don't underestimate contagion of fear and change in sentiment towards debt when it becomes clear that growth is not continueing. a setback in mining or some other part of the econmoy could be the small event required to tip things. it might start with some out of workers putting up their houses passing the critical mass of 'for sale' properties and starting the downward roll of the debt snowball
don't anchor to current employment/rices etc. no one would have expected floria and cali places to be worth what they are now back at the height of the boom.
