hold tight, page-6

Apparently the new head is stepping down soon, jamwolf. One of the PPX articles I posted on here mentioned it. A new head can give a share price a spark- I hope!

cloud, the distributions are currnetly @ 7.53% pa, or $7.46 pa on $100. At a current price of $34 per unit, that's about 22.5% return. That is *if* the distributions continue to be paid, and on current BBSW. As it looks like rates might rise, it could be more. If we fall into GFC2, rates might fall, of course. I guess what I asm saying is that these units can't fall too low- like to $7- or we'd buy them and get more cash back from the company. Given they have paid the dist's 3 times in a row, it seems unfathomable that they wouldn't again. If they don't pay, the company might be in a better position, of course. Lots of if's here. Personally, I am preparing for GFC lows of PXUPA because that helps to not have expectations. Actually, my expectation is that even if the price crumbles, if PPX recapitalises, they might buy the instruments back (at a discount- $60 has been mentioned), or pay higher interest when the new cycle comes around.

I see a kind of Hastie's recap/refinance, or it could be a NMS/PGA recap, but seriously, how far can this SP go down before some dark horse comes along? They did it with Alinta and paid double the already very distressed share price. VPG was also debt-laden and offered around double its own distressed SP.

I'm just guessing with all of the above. When I saw PPX was on the radar of the debt people, it just led me to speculate what the end game could be. I don't think most of these companies go broke these days- PPX is not in such a bad financial position, I don't think (HotCopper fundamental analysts probably know). There has also been recent consolidation in the paper industry, so that could happen here also, I guess.

cloud, re it being ex-distribution time, who knew how these would perform? They are certainly lower than they have been in the past when they've paid dist's. The lower they go, though, the higher seems the volume. People might be selling them for tax reasons, but others are picking them up. I personally don't mind if they go lower, because it's one of the only items in my portfolio that I can put some kind of "value" on- even it's a value for down the track eg next pay day, buy back, etc. That's if PPX doesn't go broke. :) Then they're worth about zero.

If anything I say needs links, I'm happy to provide them (eg re paper industry consolidation etc).