explanation to why sp has dropped, page-54

I think defplayer raises some relevant concerns.

By Lynas' own announcement they don't have a definite timetable as to how long it will take to complete their waste management and decommissioning plan, submit it to the AELB, and have it accepted.

We also don't know how long it will take the government to meet its requirements and prove to protesters/voters that they have met it (keep in mind a number of the recommendations are quite moot in how their fulfilment can be measured). Lynas can be as diligent as possible but the government has much more work to do than Lynas in meeting the recommendations. This may become clearer next week or later when the government sets out a formal timetable (as they said they would) regarding the process of commissioning the LAMP.

Also, no one knows what the protesters' impact is from here. It doesn't look like they will just back down. They are now questioning the IAEA report itself, saying it was rushed and relied on Lynas' own documents, disregarding studies done by other companies in Kuantan re the water table level etc. The Malaysian government has promised to fulfil the recommendations before commissioning the plant, so they can't back down on that promise. No matter how much the govt wants foreign investment (and they definitely want it), the democratic process coupled with voter' concerns and the fear of political backlash could cause a significant delay.

And all these uncertainties are not helped by the fact that if from September Lynas is contractually obligated to start delivering rare earths to its customers, they may be forced to take uneconomical measures to meet their obligations. (This is conjecture only, I don't know what Lynas plans to do about performing their contract or if their supply agreement is contingent on commissioning and production)

All these are legitimate concerns in the short term. I'm still of the view that the delay won't be too harsh and Lynas may still get to market before Molycorp does. But there's the risk.