miki29/ agm, page-6

Whilst we're in fantasy land, I reckon if they hit expectations on all of their projects and fully develop (of course this would take capital raising, share dilutions etc etc). But slip into fantasy land for a bit...


SD is a massive potential of 44 mmbl oil and 175 BCF of gas (& gas prices from Tunisia are about the same as WA i.e $8/GJ) so this alone is revenue of $5.2b fully developed (VIL 10% - 33cps revenue)

FP numbers are still rubbery. Their last annc stated 20BCF of gas (which is about $84m) so they seem to have downgraded their numbers (VIL 72% is approx 4cps). This doesn't include oil. In June 2010 the base case for FP was 24.2 BCF and 7.4mmbl oil so I'll use that: Rev $730m, VIL's share @ 72%) = $530m - 35cps revenue


Bullseye 5mmbl oil 5 BCF of gas, total Revenue $450m. VIL 10%, another 3cps.

Bowtie 1.7mmbl oil, 50BCF gas, total rev $350m. VIL 18%, another 4cps

Bongo 0.15mmbl oil, 45 BCF gas, rev $200m. VIL 9.28%, approx 1.2cps, however this is the most advanced project and there may be a reserves upgrade dependant on recent appraisel drill - but its alot smaller than the other projects so its no surpise thats its having very little affect on the SP.

Silverwood - written off


So Summary to get a rough valuation:

Revenue
SD 33cps
FP 35 cps
BE 3 cps
BT 4 cps
BO 1 cps

Total: 76cps

Take 30% for cost of production (all depends on cost sharing scenarios): 53 cps

add cost of future capital, NPV cashflow's etc ??

Then add risk factor (90%?)...

market values it at 1c... so can only be upside (and IMHO upside is multiples of today)

GLA


Maddoc