broader olympian thoughts
Below is my ORM (Olympian Road map) for the world I posted this morn in a traders forum I belong to and in response to an article on the impending demise of the global property markets and hence et al.
Considering CMR is part of my personal aggressive/conservative hedge to coming global adversity which I have implemented since mid last year, thought some of yas might like to know my thoughts.
I always consider the global environment and where its heading when making any long term investment decisions. CMR is my ONLY long term investment. I hold no other listed stox nor likely for the next coupla years while hopefully riding CMR to its full glory as promised again by annual reported at close of Friday's trading. I'm kinda peeing in my pants with joy cos the way they are talking, oxides PF sounds like its already a done deal .... and considering also the fact directors and associates have been buying on market since the 12 year trend reversal about a month ago. VERY early days bros.
I am at all time high holding core investment stock only (so far) and tied to the mast starting to look BEYOND what happens once oxides are producing next year as planned. Cos these boys aint talking like thats the end plan but instead the BEGINNING.
I always thought we'd be filling MIM's empty shoes but reckon might start expanding the Olympian vision towards WMRs impending empty shoes. And whats our market cap? 50 mill? Joke aint it. Thats about YEAR 1 EARNINGS from start-up next year if u do yr numbers at current metals prices.
We may say this is only an advert to subscribe, but the fears are real and are part of ORM mega-C, albeit a little late thanks to the fudging allowed by Irak Mark 2.
Fannie and Freddie are at the helm of this disaster waiting to happen. U cant ignore the facts. US and hence global markets are driven by consumer sentiment and spending. Core to this is good jobs with prospects and rising housing prices on which they can mortgage their kids' futures.
Cyclic recessions are necessary to preserve a sense of reality. This time they have gone spastic beyond all belief. We should have had a global recession around 1993+ on the back of the Japan disaster. DJIA had already risen 4 times over a 13 year period to around 3600. Instead they turned on the printing presses full pelt and suck/conned in the Japs' remaining liquidity (and everyone else followed) and took the bull into "mega" phase toward fibo 21 years instead of ending it at fibo 13. Instead of allowing the elastic to pull back naturally and hence retain its shape, they have distorted it permanently.
The world is now facing a disaster not even seen in 1929 and we have to get capitalism to move into top gear to clear the books ..........the BASIS of capitalism is to clean the balance sheet by DEBT DEFAULT. And the buck ends in the plebs' hands ...those with the debt ...the middle class. In a coupla years time there will be no middle class. It will re-emerge in due course but the shift will be "globalisation" inspired ie a rise of middle class in Asia ahead of the rest.
The sad part about all this is that poverty and unemployment creates breeding grounds for social disaster and emergence of warlords and ultimately leads to war. I cant see an easy way out of this impending disaster. Its basis is well described in Puplava's "Perfect Storm" series vols 1- 12 u can download for free from his website www.financialsense.com (I've already given him a personal rundown on CMR as a natural hedge to his scenario). Interestingly enuff, I first read this just after I formulated my ORM based simple fibo numbers for year counts looking at the long term chart of the DJIA.. He gave the reasoning behind my Delphic vision.
Irak 2 was just a red herring with further motives of course to keep the system afloat. Therein lies the further immediate danger. What r the yanks gonna do next? from "truth, justice and the american way", they have dropped the first 2 and left the last bit ...cos its a matter of survival for them now and they know it. A tiger is most dangerous when wounded and cornered.
Re LUNAR and other cosmic events, u shld look at them versus the SPX instead of the XAO. Also note that not only do they coincide with turning points, but also with BREAKOUTS.
My ORM is simple. We are now staring into the face of an impending MEGA-C asset deflation wave ..already started by the sounds of this below ...which will fully develop into across-the-board dumping of every investment class in favour of CASH ...increasingly so as the DEBT DEFAULT mechanism demands more to fill its increasing black hole. Japan 1991 +. This should take the DJIA well below its 2002 low of 7200 ........maybe as low as the 3600 1993/4 base which should have been THE high for the megabull cycle. CASH will be KING and interest rates will be HIGH because of the COMPETITION for this cash by the private and PUBLIC sector to fill these black holes. Banks will not be freely loaning during this time. U can see signs of it already creeping up on us atm.
At the end of this short, sharp megawave ....C of A-B-C-D-E down .....(we r currently in megabear rally B since Oct 2002 7200 low in DJIA) which I give it about 2 years duration once it declares itself, we will be staring at the opportunities of a lifetime ......IFFFFFFFF we have CASH waiting for it. Cos then the world will be competing for remnanats of global business by COMPETITIVE DEVALUATION OF PAPER CURRENCIES bringing upon us the REAL COMMODITIES BOOM we still have not seen ie SEVERE STAGFLATION ......which will send RESOURCES STOX through the roof and cause rally wave D .......ie, resources sector will boom on currency devaluations and fuelled by some global sectors continuing to evolve albeit at a slower pace (China, India etc) driven by internal expansion from the low bases cf with the West. The general markets will be dead but resources will be booming .....but not enough to do more than technically rally the broader market indices to lower highs within their general downtrends ...ie DJIA might head back toward the OCT 2002 low level circa 7200 but the XRA portion will be kicking butt big time. THATS when u wanna be on the GOLDCOS. Thats when OIL will hit 100 bucks USD (and Uranium with it) cos the USD wont be worth anything and everyone is demanding GOLD and EUR and RMB for payment.
During equity DJIA D-wave (lets call it 2008 - 2011), I suspect interest rates will be heading even HIGHER but in THIS instance , the driver will be in an effort to SLOW DOWN THE CURRENCY DEMISE. That will keep a dampener on global economic activity and housing and bring on final downer wave E to take out the megabear to a close at say 2014. Thats a no=brainer fo mine ................fibo 21 years up, so next level fibo 13 years down........and also FITS with the Kondratieff metals/war boom cycle which began in 1999 and expected to last 15 years.
Above is the basis for my Olympian Road Map and thats what I first said back in Year 2000. So far it has been going according to expectation and the signs are certainly there we are on track. IFFFFFF the SPX moves ABOVE its B-rallywave 62% retrace target of its fall from all time high to end A wave Oct 12 2002 ..........and that sits currently at 1254 or so and hence why I have been suggesting we MAY have one more move up left in the system ......tho that 1165 support is the critical trigger and we look like running outa steam ..........then ORM falls open to scrutiny and I may have to review my thinking which has stood me well since APR 2000.
Looking at above and if u believe, u can see why I have taken such a major position in CMR. THO dont forget I have cashed in everything else starting from a year ago and that sits mainly in EUR accessible at call. And the OXIDES initiative, subject to THAT PF finally being nailed, will mean we can ride out mega-C in relative "comfort" with plenty of cash waiting for those remnants firesales Im expecting, as we contra the general market downer with organic growth revaluation PER 6 from a ridiculously low base ........I mean a desperate market always looks for champions to back in desperate times ...and that steady flow of super money looking for a home will still be coming albeit at a slower pace ...but albeit into a reduced number of local resources homes as the WMRs etc disappear off the board ........
Come Kondratieff mega -BULL wave C which heralds in DJIA Rally wave D in a coupla years time tho, the steady growth of baby thru to toddler stage during megabear-C will step up a gear as it moves thru teens into full maturity circa 2010 , smack bang inside a metals boom ...cos investors will want HARD ASSETS instead of worthless paper. During this DJIA rally D (which will falsely be described as a new bull market) / K-C metals boomwave, I expect to be fully invested in the resources sector Olympians riding the tsunami Ive been waiting for.
Apologies to wake u up with these thoughts. U can see they are not gloom and doom. in fact this is an OPPORTUNISTIC BULLISH strategy to (1) avoid disaster and (2) create real wealth amongst the ashes whilst (3) trying to avoid the gloom around by floating on the calm waters under the warm sun with a "nice" crew.
As long as u are AWARE of the real dangers just around the corner, u might consider taking precautions JUST IN CASE I'M RIGHT. U know I always plan for the worst (this time opportunistically) and hope for the best ...cos that is Olympian philosophy.
IF I'M WRONG however, and Hope that I am, we can be singing ......lalalalala BONANZA ...lalalalal.....yeeehaaaa Hoss ...way ahead of time with baby. Thats the way I like playing it ......... win bet to nothing. Thats why Im tied to the mast and dont join yas (yet) in the other nice looking plays we have defined in here.
I am on ONE mission from the Olympian Gods ...........to nail us the bread and butter 2 bucks next year for baby producing oxides ......first ten-bagger which I "promised" my Olympian mates when they asked me to find a no-brainer a year ago haha ..........and dont want anything diluting my focus. Only prob now is , I might have to revise that 2 buck target upward as we put a little "cake" on the plate too. Who am I to argue with the "experts" now who call it 3 bucks :)
Make no mistake, that target is with megabear -C fully in mind. When I start putting on my bull horns again, u wont believe what ill be saying then.
IMOOC ("in my opinion only of course") as always, BOCICBW ("but of course I could be wrong" ) But thats how Im playing it with my hard earned to suit MY pocket and expectation and Olympian discipline. If I ERR, I do so on the conservative side, cos these are times u MUST be conservative to stay alive (IMOOC).
Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2005 5:15 AM Subject: Investment U: The Day the Buying Stopped
CMR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
