ADE 0.00% 19.5¢ adelaide energy limited

congrats to all holders!!!, page-24

  1. 646 Posts.
    Fish

    "The fully diluted market cap is say $65m at the moment, I stand to be corrected, What effect , in your opinion will this announcement today have on this figure please?"

    Stating the obvious, on a given day the MC is a factor of the market traders and their short term positions.

    That said, this announcement is very much about the effect on the companies value in three respects:

    1. How does it effect the medium to long term revenue streams.
    2. How does it effect the asset base.
    3. How does it impact on cash reserves and therefor future expansion opportunities.

    Over the medium term the market values these things the most.

    Rather than direct you to a previous post, here is a quick asset to MC list for you.

    Mc = c. $60 m

    Acreage = 122k acres

    Market value as per recent sales of similar assets = c. >$5k

    122k acres @ $3k per acre = $366m = 6 times current market cap
    122l acres at $5k per acre = $610m = 10 times current market cap

    As I have stated many times, asset values are a reflection of the amount of de-risking. 218 is effectively de-risked.

    As BPT management have stated ........... "you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what we have here." This will get a lot of media attention over the coming days/weeks so obviously that will have some unknown positive impact as well but I cannot measure that. I would much prefer to measure acreage values :)

    With respect to the other points above, this is a win win now. ADE can sell or hold. Either way, there will be a material impact to the company. Pilot wells will provide interim revenue streams as they connect to Epic's pipeline.

    As 6 has pointed out in other posts, contract renewals will also have a material, positive impact on profitability. Word on the street is that they now expect 5 to 10 times the gas out of the horizontal wells which is simply mind blowing numbers.

    You may also be interested to know that the original GIP numbers did NOT include Roseneath as it is **technically** not shale but obviously still has massive gas concentrations and may very well be the zone for the productions wells.

    So I expect a significant upward re-rating to the GIP figures at some point in time.

    This is a catalyst in every respect fish. IMO, it's simply a matter of taking a position and letting it play out. The hardest thing to get your head around is the scale of this play. It is massive by any standard and is very much in the sites of the big boys.

    If I was not set I would happily enter today and take the stock being offered by the day traders.








 
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