question for t4p or others, page-2

brumbies...

I stand corrected!

A re-read of the document confirms what you say...and as I see it, changes things somewhat!

Now I'm even more bewildered by today's action...because if these guys are in fact selling-down in order to achieve a lower daily VWAP, then the maths simply doesn't add up.

For example, to achieve today's VWAP of 10.49c, many of their sales would need to be at or below this number, effectively cancelling out any benefits of acheiving it in the first place.

I see 2 possible scenarios...

1. If I am not mistaken, in order to gain any real advantage from such a sell-down scenario, they would need to force stop-loss selling from other parties and to do so well below their own sales for the day...the problem with this scenario is that they are effectively sending their own shares (acquired from each subsequent day), down along with the rest of them...resulting in a daily paper loss.

If this were to be repeated daily, at the end of the 10 day period, all their previous "share placements" would be under water!

2. Alternatively, they could bid the price up each day, buying into the early morning weakness, then stacking the bids to encourge others to buy over the top of them later in the day...this way, they buy on market cheap, and even though they get a slightly higher VWAP, still end up with a paper profit at the end of each day due to the late buying and higher finish.

In this scenario they would then sell the previous days on-market purchases to force the price down again, buying cheaply into the ensuing weakness, then stack the bids once again to force the price up...thereby repeating the whole process over again.

The benefit of this scenario is that at the end of the 10 day "placement" period, each subsequent day will be showing an instant paper profit!

mmmmm....this is all getting a bit muddy now..might need to re-visit my theories on what to expect.

Regardless of all this however, serious support appeared at 10c today...and it was on-market buying, not just bid stacking...so it would seem some kind of trigger must have been hit.

Someone wanted out in a big way today (MM?)...and if you ask me, it appeared they had a 4pm deadline...the fact so many buyers were prepared to take him on at 10c would suggest to me that they may have been aware of who it was and exactly how many he had to offload.

If so, it would suggest that he may have finished...which is also supported by the lack of any large selling in the closing price auction, when over 1m was left sitting at 10c.

Fairly obvious that it was just one person getting out in my opinion...you don't normally see such coordinated dumping like this, on no news and at this particular piont in the cycle.

Also noticed those many little orders today seemed to be "automated", or at the very least, being controlled as a single block of trades...still not sure why.

Cheers!