150,000 workers. Let's take that number at complete face value. Let's also assume that population growth is twice that, so say we get 300,000 new people in Perth in the next 5 years. I am happy to use those conservative figures for this little thought experiment.
So based on an occupancy rate of 2.5 people per house, that means we would need 300,000/2.5 = 120,000 homes (in a 5 year period).
Now, referring to the number of housing starts: say 39,000 per year (and this wasn't a good year, indicating there is much more capacity if required). Over 5 years, that makes 195,000 homes.
So, in the next 5 years we should easily be able to build 195,000 homes...and an estimate (conservative, I trust?) of how many we need is 120,000...
Wow, this shortage has me scared!
Don't let math get in the way of a good scare/spruik though! Want me to provide some links where people suggested shortages would causes prices to increase, or at least arrest the decreases, in the US? Or is that redundant at this point.
Looks like there should be plenty of rental places for me to get my parents when they visit next southern summer. It's nice giving back to them a bit after they put me through uni ;)
