calm before the storm?, page-46

Hi Chuck,

Agree with your sentiment here and also that the likelihood of a zero viral titre is a long shot. Given the combination therapy used in the current PhII trial I am however expecting a more significant reduction in the viral load than in the previous Ph1b/2a trial per the below

"We are encouraged by the results of this trial, with 50% of subjects receiving 200 mg of BIT225 showing significant reduction in viral loads. We know from previous preclinical studies that BIT225?s potency is significantly enhanced in combination with interferon-alpha and ribavirin, so we would expect greater efficacy levels in future combination studies" said Dr Michelle Miller, CEO and Managing Director. This current result demonstrates proof-of-concept, i.e. that BIT225 is able to target and reduce HCV replication in a clinical setting."
(http://www.biotron.com.au/ftp/6Oct2009_770695.pdf)

Whilst there may be some SP action on receipt on the PhII results for BIT225, a significant re-rating will come with an announcement regarding a licensing deal. SCE have a forecast of 35c for this $15 million mkt cap bio-spec company (with only has 122 million shares on issue).
"We see the company as well placed to license BIT225
after the HCV Phase II trial."
(http://www.biotron.com.au/ftp/Biotron20110325_SQE.pdf)

The combination therapy nature of the current PhII trial is also important because -

?Anti-viral drugs cannot be used on their own to treat chronic infections due to the development of drug resistance.?
(http://www.biotron.com.au/ftp/14Dec2009_800587.pdf)

"BIT225 has been shown to be synergistic with Interferon and Ribavirin, the current approved drugs for HCV
treatment, as well as with NS5B-inhibitors which are a new class in development. The use of BIT225 in combination with either the current standard of care treatment, or NS5B inhibitors, holds exciting potential therapeutic treatment of human HCV infections."
(http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110707/pdf/01195818.pdf)

Potential licensing partners for BIT225 include Vertex (Mkt Cap $10 billion) and Merck (MC - $111 billion)

(http://www.fiercepharma.com/story/whose-hep-c-blockbuster-will-be-biggest/2011-05-16)
"Get ready for a slugfest between Merck and Vertex Pharmaceuticals. As both companies prepare for an intense marketing fight between their new hepatitis C drugs, analysts are placing their bets. Both new meds will be blockbusters, but whose blockbuster will be the biggest? "

bluebush