other bidder assessment, page-15

Hi Nervous,

I think you would acknowledge that the PES takeover period 2008-2009 was the Great QLD Gas Rush ENDING with STO being so Racked and Demoralised by missing out that it Jumped on ESG 2/7/09 with the buying of the HGO and Gastar stakes

22/12/08 AOE first bid for PES at an implied $5.40ps
9/2/09 BG counter Offer $6.40
11/2/09 AOE counter Implied $7.16
17/2/09 BG counter $8
27/2/09 BG Final $8.25
24/3/09 AOE accepts and sells out to BG

Any Other-Bidder will have to move before the Scheme Vote Mid October

I agree that if an Other-Bidder comes it will then move very quickly

BG paid 8.25/5.40 = 1.53x or a 53% premium to the AOE first bid

STO bid for ESG , an implied $0.90, then a winning other bidder in the PES Takeover model comes into the Arena x 1.53 = $1.38

So would such a Bid be good enough for us ?

For us to get $1.38 using the STO Bid Ratio 0.06803 what would the STO sp have to reach - Computer Says $20.29

What does Broker Say about Target for STO - some say average 12mth target is about $17

Some commentators have said that not much of the LNG upside is yet priced in to STO

Who can predict the future - I look forward to another Bidder coming Out


We still have about 10 weeks to find one


Cheers