tomorrow's rally, page-46

yep farlap, hard to argue for QE3 when US treasury yields are plummeting. market now has to price in a global slow-down it would seem (manufacturing, sales, employment are all contracting).

the disconnect in all this has been us corporate earnings have been good, albeit with a weighting to emerging markets. also corporate balance sheets are good.

what makes me worried from here -
1. italian contagion - this is a new story; and
2. china 'hard landing'.

these are the 'known unknowns'. both could lead to a copper price correction. h/e my view would be that avb shareholders have now largely 'discounted' this eventuality in.

all short-term though, long-term for me is still intact i.e. asian urbanisation with some hiccups along the way. US/Europe now need time for the great delever to wash through the system