hanlong - what would you do?, page-33

I expect that JV partner discussions are now even more dead and buried than they were anyway.

For a start, many people, including myself, believe that China will not compete amongst themselves for the asset therefore if Hanlong have been given the green light to pursue SDL then there will not be any other chinese players having serious JV partner discussions.

That leaves non-China players. Rumour has it that Xtrata are in the data room. If so, can't see Xstrata pursuing a multi-billion dollar transaction at this time of increased market uncertainty.

This new financial uncertainty has played right into Hanlong's hands as it will put off any other potential JV partner / bidder.

If I was Hanlong I'd sit tight on my 'offer' and point out that withdrawing the offer would likely collapse the SP completely.

My prediction is an announcement from SDL within a week or two along the lines of:

'Given current global financial market uncertainty SDL board has been unable to secure an improved offer or alternative JV arrangement. SDL board therefore has no other option than to recommend shareholders accept Hanlong offer. SDL board believes this is a good result for SDL shareholders at a time of great market uncertainty...'