what's wrong with your analysis is probably overly bearish, but essentially nothing to poke a stick at for, after all, elliott is subjective.
here's my take:
the move into the GFC low 03/09 was a 10 year sideways moving bear market that can be marked quite reasonably as a giant A B C wherein the big drop, the savage drop to the 03/09 low is the C wave.
from there we had a five wave move up to 5000 odd in the XAO mid march 2010.
a five begs for another five, but only after correcting in three, same as the giant ABC of the GFC but smaller.
we are in the C wave of that proposed correction to five up after the GFC low. in fact, we're in the C wave of the correction to the five up, which means we're at the ending phase or what i have marked as wave II, alternate wave B (sorry, can't change the font size inside the post).
for this to remain valid, the base of the five up must hold which is to say the base of the XAO at the bottom of the GFC low in 03/09 must hold.
one thing is for sure: after a pattern is all but complete, as in around 75% complete, the reliability of the forecast increases in direct proportion to the pattern's age.
we are in the mid point of the final stages (C wave) to the three-step correction countering a valid five wave up sequence.
the mother of all buying opportunities will be upon us soon, at the completion of the fifth wave of C of II. not the sort of speculatively buying of late, but the sort of buying seen only at wave 2 low's, at any degree of trend.
insofar as i can see patterns and determine likely market movement from that analysis, it appears to me we will soon be at the low. price will be the judge. time-wise, i cannot tell. never have been good at projecting time. however there are guidelines, and one is that wave (4) inside the C wave can be anticipated as not taking more than twice the length of time spent in wave (2).
this is a useful guide observed in most degrees of trend.
by way of the psychology of the market, it is not uncommon for the general feeling at the end of a three-wave correcting move (to a five wave advance) to be worse than the psychology visited upon the market at the end of the bear the bull has replaced.
in simpler terms, the market is terrified that GFC Mark II is upon us, and pretty much everyone is DUMPING stock to save their portfolios. hard to ignore this when half the world is losing their collective heads. i hope my post has assisted someone gain theirs.
