Wooduk, I sincerely wonder if you have any shares in GNS or just come here to vent about Gunns or perhaps are just a glass is half empty kind of guy. Yes Gunns didn't hold all the cards, but they had/have a good hand.
What GNS will get as reimbursement will probably be about half of what it is worth. The alternative would be to sell the contracts, void the peace agreement and everyone is back at square one. Selling the contracts at a fire sale, would again probably only get half of the value, so around $70-$80m will probably cover it. Which from a commercial point of view is just good business. How well it works, time will tell, they have a lot of generational hate or distrust there from a past generation of moderate tree huggers. There will always be a fanatical fringe that will not be satisfied until Tasmania is nothing but a National Park.
What I do find annoying about GNS is their lack of communication to their shareholders.
From a financial point of view I would be happy to see a JV and a financial backer. Or I would be happy to see solvency or a takeover bid.
The only thing I would not be happy about and cause me to sell is them going it alone and having to issue hybrids to raise capital. Given this climate I don't think that would work in any case as I don't think they could sell enough to raise the necessary levels they would require. Especially as the hybrids dividends would then be deferred for a few or more years as I have previously said. I'd be surprised if a insto or two would jump into that at the moment.
If they do anything other than GNSPA I will simply stick these in the lower drawer until they start to produce, insolvency or takeover bid.
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