anz has topped, page-59

ctindale, kondratiev wave theory has my attention.
Not sure when it troughs but I'm banking (pardon the pun) on 2020.

That's a long and lonely wait and I'm not sure how you protect capital in such a scenario.

Back to the property/banking theme, my research (sourced from Farrellys) has 16% of home loans with an LVR greater than 80%. Of that, 5% greater than 90%. Assume all these borrowers defaulted on a 30% fall in property prices, banks are looking at a loss of around 2.9% of their portfolio.

That's based on these borrowers declaring bankruptcy. Banks NIM on average has been 1.5-2% so this scenario is looking at wiping out up to 2 years worth of earnings on their mortgage book in a pretty negative (but not unrealistic) scenario.

Having written that, I couldn't resist buying ANZ below $18 today although I'm not a holder long term.