capital raising is now the key issue, page-13

Ousia

I think i remember seeing your name many months ago and attached to some pretty decent analysis. That being the case, welcome back.

Comments on your initial post above.

1. I calculate ACL reaping a tickle over 2b by end 2017 from Fonda revenues based on 56% market share and 20% price discount with the fonda market growing at 10% a year. Can you tell me how you calculate ACLs value at between 150-300m? Keen to understand that.

2. I would say the chance of the HA trial working is a little better than 50%. The phase II trial indicated the drug works only the sample size was so small (76 people i think) its possible the majority of those 76 people were for whatever reason predisposed to respond well. The phase III trial with 390 people will address this. So for me knowing the drug is well tolerated and effective in 76 people means there is a more than 50% chance it will work well in a further 390 people.

3. ACLs value if the phase III trial is successful. The Abraxis buy out of Celgene for 2.9b is a good guide i guess. Interestingly they also had a crack at lung cancer but from memory it has been unsuccessful. (I could be wrong on that)

I agree with your sentiment, the share price probably wont recover substantially until funding is addressed. That said, it did take about 4 weeks for the share price to recover from what i will call the 'Apicore crash' last year. Different circumstances i know but tells you something about how long it takes people to forget the initial shock and see value again.