china still craves african iron ore - :), page-3

interesting crunching the numbers to get some sort of comparison between AM (AML?) and SDL...

AML total JORC resource is 12.1b tonnes from which I have calculated a contained Fe of 4.0b mt iron. basis $1.5b for 25% of AML (ie 6$b capex) shandong have paid $1.50 per mt contained Fe

SDL has JORC resource of about 2.8b mt with contained Fe of 1.18b mt which, based on Hanlong's $0.50c offer and market cap of $1.5b implies a price of $1.27 per mt contained Fe.

If Hanlong increased offer to match Shandong ie $1.50 per mt contained Fe then implies market cap of $1.77b or $0.62 per share.

However, AML will commence production this year, a full 3 years earlier than SDL.

I think a pretty tough argument to make that Hanlong should pay same $ per contained Fe when 3 years difference in production.

$0.50c seems fair value to me compared to AML deal.