moving forward - back of the envelope numbers., page-7

I have revisited the Morningstar commentary and enclose their direct quote as follows:

"""Our commodity prices are relatively conservative. Using spot prices would raise our NPAT forecasts to $1.65bn in FY12 and $1.91bn in FY13. The valuation would increase from $42.85 to $66.70 a share. We expect upgrades both to near term earnings forecasts and our valuation should high prices persist. Continued positive results from Wafi-Golpu along with the other major exploration projects could also benefit meaningfully"""

I understand this to mean that we don't necessarily agree with current spot gold prices , however if it looks as though the current gold price is sustainable we could ratchet up our estimate to $66.70 a share. Maybe higher if exploration results from the likes of Wafi_Golpu continue to shine. So this is really an upgrade to $66.70,subject to spot gold prices remaining as is. Should spot gold prices rise further , then the valuation would increase further.

So if you are an investor who sees spot gold prices remaining as is or increasing further , you need to give strong consideration to buying this dip with both hands.

Or those that want to take a wait and see approach may want to review the Sept quarter numbers , which should show a profit increase of say 700k ounces at a gold price of +$300 = +$200m minimum.

Once spot gold passes through $2k I expect a raft of broker upgrades to NCM and all the major miners - again this current dip is a perfect buying opportunity for those who believe in a strong to rising gold price.