lets guage expectations, page-7

I won't give a definitive SP but a range based on my bottom line expectations.


1 to 12 months:
.5 to .6 cents as a worst case secenario in a downturn/recession, rising up to .11c on the strength of new signings.

At the very least in this timeline, we should sign 1 or more companies of the R & D market... hopefully generating enough cash to make ADO cash flow postive.


6 to 18 months:
.5 to .6 cents as a worst case secenario in a downturn/recession, rising up to .24 on the strength of new IVD signings.

I think it will take at least 6 months to sign a major IVD player. When such a signing does come, the .24 SP is a strong possiblity based on the optimistic forecast of the Southern Cross Equities report of last year. Check out their quote below:

"We value ADO at $0.13 per share base case and $0.24 optimistic case using a highdiscount rate DCF valuation. Our target price of $0.13 sits at our base case
valuation."

Obviously the above dated quote doesn't take into account we now have 60+ companies testing the product, of which we now have at least one IVD company looking at using Mix 'n' Go across a range of tests, hence my belief a .24 SP is less optimistic and more realistic when such signing(s) do come.



Note: The reason I chose an optimistic range of .5 to.6 cents as a worst case secenario is, - in a downturn/recession, clearly the IVD market should still grow, based on what happened in GFC 2. Here's another Southern Cross quote:

We estimate the global market for in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) that is, diagnostics performed in laboratories as opposed to point-of-care testing performed at the patient's bedside, in a physician's office or at home - is currently around US$40bn pa and growing 5-6% pa. The 2008/09 economic downturn in Europe and North American barely dented this growth, only taking it down to around 3-4%, from which it has since recovered.



WILDCARD FACTOR for our SP to rise quicker and higher than expected:

If, as predicted, we get a downturn/recession, it will change and speed up the thinking of decision makers in the companies we are targeting.

In this highly regulated industry we are targeting and in which I work, the thinking "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" - is very prevalent. I have to doubt this has stopped/slowed some companies from signing up.

But if, and when, the downturn/recession comes (ie- the last couple of weeks perhaps), managers and CEO's alike will be under pressure to maintain income levels. Invariably the first place they target is cost cutting, and this is when Mix 'n' Go will be taken up on a wave of signings.

And there's the irony about this downturn/recession - the very thing that may/will hammer our SP, is the very thing that will help create a heap of signing and propel our SP to the highs we all hope for.

I believe this wildcard card will play out in the next 18 months, and was one the drivers for me buying more stock this week.

All the above is opinion, please DYOR.