take over target

Nexus Energy, the next takeover target

Posted by BBY on 24 August 2011

Shell's proposed joint cash offer for Bow Energy (A$1.435, -0.3%) at A$1.48ps, is at 67% premium to BOW's previous closing price (A$0.885ps), we feel a similar situation could potentially occur for Nexus Energy (A$0.205, +13.9%).

Santos (A$11.32, -3.7%) recently offered a A$0.90ps (to mop up the remainder of Eastern Star Gas (A$0.76, -2.6%) it did not own) which was at 51% premium to ESG's close of A$0.595ps on 15 July 2011.

While far from certain, a potential opportunistic bid for NXS based on a similar "premium" would imply a NXS share price of about A$0.30ps - i.e. cheap. We doubt whether investors would cave in on this hypothetical scenario given we think NXS is worth more than this. Our valuation is A$0.74ps with a Strong BUY recommendation.