BD, love what you have done to this thread; great effort. (Not sure about your portfolio tho?; long this market is playing the high risk strategy IMO; never give advice but just a thought.
64eheh great vid re rise of China and India IMO
Redbacka; just compulsory daily viewing IMO (you actually save me a lot of time because you lay markets out so logically! Thanks)
Martis, worried about yr posts at first (including that initial H&S call; shocker IMO) but I admire recent posts in the face of some of the criticism you receive; some of the criticism from HC elite.
Couple of points: -shorting discussion from mid week prompted a few thoughts: GFC taught me several things including:
-In Oz we really were the Lucky Country in 90 s and 00?s
-TA was the only way of picking such things; dont know of one economist/market commentator who got it close to right; what got me doing wot I do today!
-To make $$ in any market it helps to short; markets spend (nearly) as much time going down as well as up. I do NOT agree with martis that shorting is risky & I believe that it theoretically actually less risky to be short because markets move MUCH quicker down than up; respect yr right not to short tho (In fact I respect anyones right to do what they want!! LOL)
-IMO chart patterns (including H&S) have been very effective at picking market tops and bottoms; look no further than the Sep 11 top of dow for one! WRT H&S like many other patterns they are really nothing more than a visual representation of other more accepted TA techniques. A conventional H&S is confirmation that after a Higher high (Head) we have a lower high (RS) and a breach of neck means we must form a lower Low. When supported by volume very powerful & IMO spookily accurate as a projection method. While on soapbox worth pointing out that the famous pitchfork is exactly the same; the ?retest? that Totters taught us about is nothing more than a Higher low (in an uptrending fork); if it does not happen either price moving up anyway and if it goes lower then fork ?not valid?. The looked for move to the median tyne usually analogous to the accepted 50% Gann/fib retrace. All IMO but when viewed like this confirms that chart patterns are not magic just convenient visual aids!
Now , I actually tuned in to post an update of a thought I and others have shared before; just woke up and wanted to consolidate in my own mind how similar this market is to previous markets so did a few lines. Some of this is repeats so apologies there (drawing and posting is how I learn):
Firstly comparison of recent %age moves with pre GFC:
Now lets look up closer with a projection: (120912 in the iphone lol)
& pattern has repeated before:
As always DYOR and happy for any comments/questions.
(20min delay)