PNA 0.00% $1.84 panaust limited

announcement in, page-5

  1. SCD
    3,438 Posts.
    re: quarterly report Hi Satori,

    You wrote...

    "As I have stated on another site, the quarterly report said nothing that hadnt already been said.

    And yet,...

    we have further bad news slipped into the last announcement. The following may not be pleasant reading for many PNA shareholders. For example, we are told that...

    1. the supply problems were unanticipated. How is it that the problems were unanticipated? I know they run a very lean management team but is there anyone managing their suppliers?

    2. gold production which was suppose to commence in March...then May...now June 2005. Unfortunately, most posters on HC want to believe that this means the beginning of June. It is my understanding that the heap leach process takes some 6+ weeks and consequently, if the ore crushing and stacking isn't scheduled to commence until sometime in May, it is unlikely that PNA will pour their first gold until the end of June, at best. Anyone want to take bets on first pour slipping our to July, especially given the heighten risks brought on by the wet season?

    3. elevated grades were previously indicated at 1.7 g/t and now, for the first time, we are told that they are "up to 1.5 g/t"...a reduction in grades will have a significant impact on the cash flowthat generated in FY06 and FY07

    4. in November 2004, the company stated that it was commencing a drilling program at LCT and Ban Houayxai. Month after month, we have been anticipating the first drill results which would indicate upside potential to the current gold resources (especially oxide versus primary). Now, we are told that "The company has decided to postpone the resource extension drilling program planned for LCT and Ban Houayxai until after the wet season (June to September). IF, this program does commence in October, first drill results won't be availale until late November 2005. So much for any upside from further exploration...there will be none in the next 7 months to lend support to the share price.

    5. ever since I reported back from the November 2004 AGM, many here have known that there is a question mark over the copper mine at Puthep, Thailand ever getting off the ground. It has been very low in PNA's priorities and we are now told that PNA is awaiting final government approval to commence the drilling program and..."this is very likely to cause the postponement of the program until the December quarter (after the wet season).

    Sadly, PNA has not been able to imitates Oxiana's track record of achieving and at times, exceeding, its commitments to project milestones and its promises to shareholders.

    Quite frankly, apart from the infill drilling at the Phu Kham Copper Gold deposit, there is little positive in the Quarterly Report and many more concerns to add to my previous list of concerns.

    How anyone can suggest that "the quarterly report said nothing that hadnt already been said" is a mystery to me.

    Finally, I have factored the latest information including delays into my Discounted Cash Flow Valuation spreadsheet, and IMO, if all the current concerns were resolved positively...AND all the above delays taken into account....AND every future risk between now and production of gold AND copper-gold concentrate were overcome...AND the copper production at Puthep still happened as per the original schedule...THEN, PNA would be valued on a fully diluted basis at 42c per share (base case).

    Who in the right mind is going to pay anywhere near that price until they see things improve and the 1st copper gold concentrate poured on time, to budget and at the margins outlined in the pre-bfs report?

    All I can add is "Best of Luck to You"

 
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