atl1103 anti cancer medications, page-80

Perhaps looking through rose coloured glasses, as I am a bit confused why there is no intinsic value added to ANP when a majority of the commercial risk as to potential development has / was removed at human clinical stage.
Why do I say that?
-we are basically at / near cash backing (admittedly high cash burn rate-but no cap raisings will be seen until human trials complete__ due q1: 2012 or earlier)
-we have a very good chance (95% ??) chance of commercial success, given success on primates
-we know our target market and can assume a minimum annual income of between 200 mill-500 mill at project launch, based on Somavert market share
-we have ISIS as a partner who have remained loyal and have the funds to assist us through growth / licensing with minimal dilution
-we will realise tax incentives / grants through all stages of development
When compared to ANY resource stock that is a small cap (speccy), I would argue we are WAY undervalued. I cant for the life of me understand why????
For analogy, I will use a recent stock recommended recently which is mining Potash
-It has just commenced drilling with known resource subsequent to previous historic drillings, thereby giving it some certainty / likelihood of success.
-It has to obtain state / federal grants (risk / timeframe)
-JORC (size of mine / mine life and thereby viability of commercialisation an unknown
-It will have environmental issues to respond to, additional risks of licensing, taxation, transportation, etc
YET, it has a current market cap of around 70mil and stated it may times x 5 if / when the state grants and
JORC is identified..At this point, you would consider it may have a timeline of 18-36 mths for development / commercialisation unless significant J/V established.
In my opinion, our little bio-tech has far less intrinsic risk.
If human trials are a success, one would assume a tie in partner would be chomping at the bit to be a part of this.
So, please inform me. Why would the market NOT realise our market cap be in the order of 600mill (3 x Projected earnings), upon finalisation of human trials???
Granted, we are and would remain as a small cap stock but at a SP of say 8cents, this still affords a great deal of growth / profit leading up to development where a market cap of 6 x P/E could not be out of the question.
To me, the only variables are:
. Success of human trials
. Time frame for sophisticated investors or tie in partner to jump on board
. Means / timeframes of cap raisings which will add further dilution to the S/P down the track
. What are the development costs through to commercialisation???
It's not a no brainer (why it's a speccy), but my money is happy to be in this stock rather than any current resource I am aware of given the risk / reward AND timeframes.