1. So the last Labor surplus was around 1993. 28 years ago...
2. And didnt those countries that loaded up on debt do well! The US, UK, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Japan, China, and of course Greece. All those economies are going gangbusters now...wait no their not! They seem to be facing the same problems they had pre-GFC except now they have a lot more debt! A cunning plan as Baldric would say.
But not everyone loaded up on debt. Canada only provided a stimulus package at the death and even then was fairly paltry amount. It had previously refused to do anything. And it's economy is looking very good at the moment. Pretty sure Brazil and India kept out of the stimulus market too. Both economies doing well.
3. Costing of the multiplier effect? Just gave the figure for how much it cost to keep a construction job. You think $450,000 is good value? What exactly would have been the job losses without a stimulus thingy? Canada is back to its pre-GFC levels without putting the country into long term debt.
Perhaps the economy needed that recession to expel the malinvestment in real estate and redirect the economy into more productive areas. Certainly interest rates would be lower and inflation would probably be close to zero. Ideal conditions for economic growth and job growth.
4. Agree the housing bubble had been bubbling for a good 10 years or so but his stimulus has made the end result much worse. And more importantly, those would-be new homebuyers would still be waiting in the wings to buy when prices became affordable. Instead they are already in the market with increasing levels of mortgage stress and the likely result that many thousands of them will have to sell up at a loss. Guess what happens to people who get a bad financial experience? They do their level best not to repeat it. So where are the new buyers going to come from?
Relying on consumers to increase their debt levels for economic growth is just one of the stupid Keynesian theories now dying a nasty little death. It is akin to economic activity, it is not sustainable growth.
5. Cost of living was higher under Howard than now? Since 2007 the average inflation rate has been, officially, well over 2% probably close to 3% and it is going higher. Pretty sure Howard's years saw inflation under 2% almost continuously. Prices have never been higher.
6. So Howard was lucky because everything was in a bubble and Rudd and Gillard were unlucky because all the bubbles had burst. I agree Howard increased welfare to the middle class that was unneccessary but he also cut income tax rates and basically let the public decide how best to spend/save their money.
He left office with a $20B surplus. He left the Rudd government in a position envied by many other countries. Since Rudd got in the resource sector has gone to record highs on the back of record commodity prices. Rudd/Gillard had many things going for them. Sadly, they have wasted those advantages and opportunities.
Hence the record lows for both Labor and Gillard and a record high for Liberals of 50% first preference.
