bulls will be back in a few days, page-4

Hello my fellow bulls, glad to meet you. It seems we are in the minority on HC were bearish hysteria reigns supreme atm. Whatever the markets do here's some interesting points the bears would prefer to ignore:

NAB today revised Australian GDP growth forecast up to 1.3% from 0.9% "in the wake of the extraordinarily strong company profits and inventories reports." -Rob Henderson, Chief Economist Markets, NAB.

Yesterday (05/09/11) Craig James, Chief Economist at CBA had this to say:
"We expect the All Ordinaries to end 2011 around 4650 points (ASX 200 4600), lifting to 4850 by June 2012 (ASX 200 4825) and both the All Ordinaries and ASX 200 are expected to end 2012 around 5000 points."

James called the March 2009 bottom on 31 Dec, 2008 stating at the time, 'Q1 2009 will be more of the same and then toward the end of Q1 it will turn and we'll be up 30-40% for the year'(paraphrased, I have original audio on file). At the height of market fear this significant statement by the Chief Economist of our largest bank was simply ignored in the mainstream so far as I saw. This situation just seems like history repeating to me.

USA government growth forecasts from last week were on par with what has been predicted for a long time now, subdued growth but no recession. Chris Caton, Chief Economist for BT has been saying for weeks that the data did not indicate recession. Michael Knox, Chief Economist RBS Morgans on FNN 31 Aug said ASX was heading for 5200 level.

There's no denying the gloomy aspects of the data or the world economy. The problems and volatility worry me as much as anyone. But lets not be swayed by doomsayers or record low sentiment. Instead ask yourselves, what are the true fundamentals of this move? For example, DAX is down ~43% in two months! Are the top German companies really worth 43% less than two months ago? Germany has been one of the best economies in the world for how long now? Have people stopped getting out of bed? Does 43% down seem justified to anyone? Even if 45% down seems likely tonight...

Suffice to say, I've seen no information sufficient to support a move of this magnitude. By all means please enlighten me, only lets use facts not fears. I admit I do not begin to understanding this move on the DAX or wider markets and spend a great deal of time reading up. I would like to better understand, but again looking to people smarter than me and I see big identities everywhere sharing the view, 'anyone who says they know what's happening is a liar'.

For my dime, if HC commentators (cough cough martis cough) did actually know better they'd be the ones managing billions. Instead they're here, citing their 'years of experience' as if their opinions and credentials outweigh the likes of our chief economists. While I do respect and appreciate the efforts of any poster seeking inform us on the markets, such arrogance is laughable imho.

As a final case in point to put the doomsaying in perspective, Australian investor sentiment figures out yesterday show the lowest level since Q1, 2009. What else happened in Q1, 2009? There is a lot of soundly bullish (read as non-recessional) information like the above getting drowned out in the hysteria.

As one wise investor said: buy when the stock market is on sale and beware of geeks bearing formulas.

While the market can definitely stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent I am firmly in acquisition mode.