siameseparrot great post you have it spot on. I did tell Australian investors this in a PM lift out recently, what you say is there for us that look - to see :-) Also spot on about counter cyclic nature of gold and gold stocks.
Goldmick - yep sell with index, because run by Funds and their algorithms which have not factored gold and the dividends as yet. Yep will earn a fortune this is a no 'brianer' but only when the writing is on the quarterly will they be forced to recognise gold. Kicking and screaming into reality like many others. They will and make siameseparrot and all of us right in the end.
SG yes it is not that simple, and yes sector has always been high risk in the past - most of the time. Now is not one of those times if you have the smarts on goldies. Lower risk than cash (inflation certain to continue to smash), property (ouch this is not a popular view but I have been right across most of the sector the past year or two) and now bonds - very high very risky. Those Treasuries look set for a bounce, see if it can go on with it this time. Pimco might have been right just too early like Steve Keane on property LOL, really tough sailing for forecasts in these unchartered waters.
The pro - very clever and spot on, change in the blink of the eye and ready to change with it - name fits...
I have used a bit of a different strategy - running with just the stocks - bias 'should' be upside so holding a few as core and trading half. But only in conservative fund. Selling on my signals and buying back in on price drops, at my buy signals. Am banking some cash while it hovers about and holding just in case a fat tail event happens in my sleep - nasty conditions. Happy to change view - follow the market, and steer clear of hubris it will smash you every time.
Rumors about a buy out from Harmony 50% share at the Wafi-Golpu project for circa $4B. This is estimated value for 50% now what a great investment that was well done NCM (bought 50% for $525M 3 years ago). Might have had some effect, enough on their plate already. The heavy re-investment program over coming years would have inhibited dividends however this rising gold price will change that and allow both IMO.
My systems have broken down just now looking for a return of the signals to see about that 'buy' I have been talking about. Will share if and when...
Very best to all, enjoyed the read is worthwhile in here. CW
NCM Price at posting:
$39.75 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
