just pays to ponder if we get to pe's 8 to 11 say and reasonably steady though subdued outlooks, where will the earnings yield be compared to bonds?? at present it would make shares very cheap but it is possible that eventually the dearth of money( welcome to be challenged on that statement )in the west, might lead to higher bond yields!???
just to follow up on fluff's thoughts is that we have had all this negativity around and the widespread knowledge of how bad things are, and yet we still havent had a real real decent crash ( is it this week and if not why the hell not - get it over with!! )
- when all is doom and gloom remember people have to do something with their money- bank interest is boring!! therefore the market will eventually steady and go up, just where that happens from is the moot point!
- this brings me to the devils advocate point in the first paragraph - i think corporates and private investors ( and perhaps china somehow??) may end up somehow bailing many gov'ts out and perhaps there is NOT a dearth of money in the west!!
havent seen recent figures but i know japan with a huge govt debt also has huge private savings ( in excess of the debt ) - usa's private and corporate savings experienced great growth last year, but i dont know the figure compared to their national government debt and, is this a very relevant figure to study?? some figures i have seen for corporates dont seem to nett off the debt! but surely domestic retail savings is a good thing to compare a governenments debt to?
it could be a good thing to get some good posts on, especially re europe ?!
